Workshop on Overarching Issues in Risk Analysis

Iowa State University, Ames, IA
October 27-29, 2005

Sponsored by
Iowa State University and
National Institute of Statistical Sciences

Workshop Purpose

The primary goal of the workshop is a "stock-taking" that the proliferation of exciting new research on risk analysis over the past several years makes as feasible as it is necessary. We seek answers to such questions as:

• What are the high-leverage gaps?
  
  
• What issues span multiple problem contexts?
  
  
• What kinds of collaborations among researchers in the statistical, applied mathematical and decision sciences and domain scientists are needed to carry out the research?
  

An example of a high-leverage issue is validation of complex risk analysis models, which merges issues of computer experiments, Bayesian analysis, data quality and uncertainty quantification.

Background

Over the past several years, there has been a wealth of scientific progress on risk analysis. But, the same forces of diversity that have stimulated the progress have to a significant degree engendered fragmentation. To illustrate, diversification of the set of underlying problems, driven by areas ranging from national defense and homeland security to genetically modified organisms to critical infrastructure, has led to effective but narrowly focused research. The diversity of problem contexts has a significant public policy component, which is driven in part by the increasing stakes and the multiplicity of stakeholders. In particular, policy concerns direct attention not only to the dramatic risks for huge numbers of people associated, for example, with bioterrorism, but also to "small-scale" risks such as drug interactions driven by genetics.

At the same time, it is clear that overarching needs exist, and equally clear that the diversity of research on risk analysis has inhibited the communication and collaboration needed to address them. For example, early detection of extremely rare events is needed in contexts ranging from bioterrorism to such "traditional" areas as automobile safety, the latter exemplified by the Ford Explorer-Firestone tire problem.

Another, and especially challenging, issue is the increasing divergence between risk perception and risk reality. Statistically, it may be demonstrably more dangerous to drive to the airport than to fly on an airplane, but few people behave as if this is so. Tools to communicate and even visualize risk represent a research as well as a policy need. Without them, the impact of other research is diminished dramatically.

Registration

ADVANCE REGISTRATION FOR THE WORKSHOP IS REQUIRED. To register for the click on the link below:

Registration is now closed

There is no fee for participants from the NISS Affiliates and NISS/SAMSI University Affiliates, who may also use their Affiliates Reimbursement Accounts to help cover costs of attending. The fee for all others is $75.00.

The registration form contains instructions for payment of fees.

WORKSHOP LOCATION: The workshop will be held at The Hotel at Gateway Center.

ACCOMMODATIONS: Rooms for participants are available at the

The Hotel at Gateway Center
US 30 Elwood Drive
Ames, IA 50010
515-292-8600
http://www.thehotelatgatewaycenter.com/

Mention you are with the event "ISU Statistics Department" to get the special rate of $89.00.

This block of rooms will be held until October 6, so be sure to make your reservation by then. Please contact the hotel for availabilty after this date.

Shuttle service between the hotel and ISU campus will be available.

TRAVEL: The nearest airport to Ames is Des Moines International Airport.