The Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model is being used by scientists around the world to study the infectious disease dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic and guide public health policy decisions for mitigating the impact of the disease. The National Institute of Statistical Sciences (NISS) and the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics in Epidemiology (ASA-SIE) have teamed up to co-sponsor a special two hour tutorial on SIR methods. In this tutorial, you will learn about the background and theory of the SIR modeling approach, how it is applied to understand the spread of COVID and other infectious diseases, and how to use R software to fit basic and more complicated SIR models. Participants are expected to have some basic familiarity with R. The instructor for this event is Ottar Bjornstad, PhD.
Bjørnstad, O.N., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. and Altman, N., "Modeling infectious epidemics." Nature methods 17 (2020): 455-456.
with associated online Shiny App https://shiny.bcgsc.ca/posepi1/
Bjørnstad, O.N., Shea, K., Krzywinski, M. and Altman, N., "The SEIRS model for infectious disease dynamics." Nature methods 17 (2020): 557-558.
with associated online Shiny App https://shiny.bcgsc.ca/posepi2/
All the data and functions to be discussed are in the R-package: https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=epimdr
Please use your institutional email address when registering for this session, (i.e., .edu, .com or .gov).
Members of the American Statistical Association Section on Statistics in Epidemiology (ASA-SIE) will be asked for their ASA Number. We will use this to confirm that you are a member of this section.
NISS Affiliate Members will be asked to list their institution's name. If you are unsure of whether your institution is a NISS Affiliate, you can check the List of NISS Affiliates web page.
Non-member cost to participate in the live event is $30. However, due to the generosity of the instructor, the public will be invited to view the entire tutorial at no cost next month.
The Format for this Tutorial will be organized as follows:
1:00 - 1:05 Opening Remarks
1:05 - 2:50 Tutorial
2:50 - 3:00 Q and A
About the Instructor
Ottar Bjornstad is the Distinguished Professor of Entomology and Biology, the J. Lloyd & Dorothy Foehr Huck Chair of Epidemiology, and Adjunct Professor in the Department of Statistics at Pennsylvania State University. His main research interests are population ecology and population dynamics, with particular emphasis on the mathematical and computational aspects. He also conducts research in statistical ecology and methods for analyzing spatiotemporal data, and authored the book “Epidemics, Models and Data using R” published in 2018. His expertise has been used in an advisory capacity for outbreak control and mitigation by the USDA forest Service, the NIH Fogarty International Centre and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. He has received numerous awards and honors for his work, including elected Fellow of the American Association of the Advancement of Science and the Penn State University’s Faculty Scholar Medal in the Life and Health Sciences.