The primary goal of the workshop is a "stock-taking" that the proliferation of exciting new research on risk analysis over the past several years makes as feasible as it is necessary. We seek answers to such questions as:
What are the high-leverage gaps?
What issues span multiple problem contexts?
What kinds of collaborations among researchers in the statistical, applied mathematical and decision sciences and domain scientists are needed to carry out the research?
An example of a high-leverage issue is validation of complex risk analysis models, which merges issues of computer experiments, Bayesian analysis, data quality and uncertainty quantification.
Over the past several years, there has been a wealth of scientific progress on risk analysis. But, the same forces of diversity that have stimulated the progress have to a significant degree engendered fragmentation. To illustrate, diversification of the set of underlying problems, driven by areas ranging from national defense and homeland security to genetically modified organisms to critical infrastructure, has led to effective but narrowly focused research. The diversity of problem contexts has a significant public policy component, which is driven in part by the increasing stakes and the multiplicity of stakeholders. In particular, policy concerns direct attention not only to the dramatic risks for huge numbers of people associated, for example, with bioterrorism, but also to "small-scale" risks such as drug interactions driven by genetics.
At the same time, it is clear that overarching needs exist, and equally clear that the diversity of research on risk analysis has inhibited the communication and collaboration needed to address them. For example, early detection of extremely rare events is needed in contexts ranging from bioterrorism to such "traditional" areas as automobile safety, the latter exemplified by the Ford Explorer-Firestone tire problem.
Another, and especially challenging, issue is the increasing divergence between risk perception and risk reality. Statistically, it may be demonstrably more dangerous to drive to the airport than to fly on an airplane, but few people behave as if this is so. Tools to communicate and even visualize risk represent a research as well as a policy need. Without them, the impact of other research is diminished dramatically.
Thursday, October 27, 2005
2:00 - 5:00 PM
Public Forum: The Broad Context of Risk Analysis
Risk Perception: Paul Slovic (University of Oregon)
Risk as Analysis and Risk as Feelings: Some Thoughts about Affect, Reason, Risk, and Rationality
Legal Context: Christopher Schroeder (Duke University)
From an "Essentially Useless Exercise" to Ground Zero in the Sound Science Wars: The Changing Law of Risk Analysis
Political Context: Elizabeth Yetley (NIH)
Science and Policy in Risk Analysis: An Necessary but Incompatible Mix?
5:30 PM Reception
Friday, October 28, 2005
8:45 AM Welcome and Introductions
Presentation, Response, Discussion: Clinical and Pharmaceutical Risks
Susan Ellenberg (University of Pennsylvania, School of Medicine)
Some Perspectives On Evaluating The Risks Of Medical Products
Robert Obenchain (Eli Lilly)
Overarching Issues in Pharmaceutical Risk
Stan Young (NISS), Susan Ellenberg, and Robert Obenchain
Risk in the Pharmaceutical Industry
10:30 AM Break
Presentation, Response, Discussion: Food Safety
Nathan Mosier (Purdue) and Bruce Craig (Purdue)
Predicting Cell Capture from Dilute Samples for Microfluidic Biosensors
Bruce Craig (Purdue)
Early Detection of Foodborne Pathogens
Alicia Carriquiry (Iowa State)
Assessing the Risk of Illness from Food-borne Pathogens
12:30 PM Lunch
Presentation, Response, Discussion: Natural Disasters
Ed Laatsch (FEMA)
David Banks (Duke)
Improvisation on a Theme from FEMA
3:00 PM Break
Presentation, Response, Discussion: Critical Infrastructure
James McCalley (Iowa State University)
Energy System Risk Assessment
Alan Karr (NISS)
5:00 PM Adjourn for the day
7:00 PM Workshop Dinner
Saturday, October 29, 2005
9:00 AM Open Discussion: What are Overarching Issues?
10:30 AM Break
11:00 AM Planning Session for SAMSI 2007-08 Program on Risk Analysis and Modeling
12:00 N Lunch
1:30 PM Workshop Adjourns